A safe, laundromat-style shop that restores power-tool, e-bike & cordless battery packs to spec -- engineered so a Li-ion fire cannot happen. Assembled by the Nishi finance member, 2026-06-23. Figures tagged VERIFIED (sourced) or assumption (not yet sourced).
People throw away "dead" lithium packs that are often just BMS-locked or have a few weak cells. This shop diagnoses each pack and restores the recoverable ones to spec -- BMS reset, rebalance, cell replacement, or full re-cell -- and safely retires + recycles the rest. The differentiator is safety by construction: a battery management substrate (Nishi nx_battery_safety) that structurally refuses any charge/discharge/thermal command that could drive thermal runaway. The model is a HYBRID: supervised express self-service for simple test/reset/balance, plus a back-of-house tech bench for re-cells.
The grounded numbers: an initial investment of about $41488.00, roughly $4802.00 net per month at full demand, and a base payoff near 9 months. But the margin is thin and the base case is fragile -- see the adversarial stress (Section 6): four of five realistic shocks turn it cash-negative. This is a real business, won on cell-cost control, labor pricing power, throughput, and the safety moat -- not on easy margin.
Honest scope: "EGO-grade top capacity" means rebuilt-to-spec, not un-aging a worn cell (capacity fade is largely irreversible). Intake triage assigns each pack one verdict: UNSAFE-REJECT (swollen / over-discharged / out-of-temp -- recycled, never charged), RETIRE-RECYCLE, RE-CELL (replace bad cells + rebalance), BMS-RESET (the "dead but fine" pack -- cheapest, highest-margin recovery), RECONDITION (balance charge), or PASS-HEALTHY. The customer keeps their pack and saves vs a new OEM battery; the planet keeps cells out of landfill.
Demand is VERIFIED real: re-cell and rebuild shops exist and transact today (e.g. mail-in services price a DeWalt 20V re-cell at $61.50 and an e-bike rebuild at $120-$190 + parts). Power tools and e-bikes are a large, growing installed base with steady pack-failure replacement and a strengthening right-to-repair tailwind. Assumption / open: the precise US market size, growth rate, and local demand density did not survive verification and must be sized locally before committing capital. Competitors: Batteries Plus, local repair shops, and mail-in re-cell services -- none combining storefront convenience with safety-by-construction.
R0 Safety substrate (built): the never-ignite envelope. R1 Intake & diagnosis (built): SoH + electrical screen -> triage verdict. R2 Recondition (next): staged restore, every step safety-validated. R3 Fire-safe facility (next): fire-rated charging bays, thermal auto-isolation, self-service interlock. R4 Economics & plan (this document). R5 Market & program: competitive positioning + launch.
| Line | Amount | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Initial investment (capex) | $41488.00 | itemized; safety cabinet, analyzers & cell inventory VERIFIED, rest assumption |
| Operating cost | $8800.00/mo | rent / labor / insurance / utilities / disposal -- assumption (unverified) |
| Gross contribution | $13602.00/mo | pricing VERIFIED, job volume assumption |
| Net | $4802.00/mo | base case (full demand month 1) |
| Payoff | 9 months | initial investment / net |
The verified hard truth: at ~$5.29/cell and 5-15 cells per pack, cell COGS often approaches the rebuild price, so labor and throughput carry the business, with higher-value e-bike rebuilds and diagnostic fees doing the heavy lifting.
| Scenario | Net / month | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Base (full demand) | $4802.00/mo | payoff 9 mo |
| S1 cell cost +50% (raw-material spike) | -$1028.00/mo | KILLED |
| S2 OEM 'just buy new' price -25% | -$1548.00/mo | KILLED |
| S3 demand -40% (slow ramp / thin market) | -$638.80/mo | KILLED |
| S4 compliance + insurance shock +$2,000/mo | $2802.00/mo | survives (payoff 15 mo) |
| S5 combined (cell +20% / price -10% / demand -20%) | -$1816.00/mo | KILLED |
The profit/risk planner scored four models. Full self-service (a literal "battery laundromat") is the highest fire-safety and capital risk -- unattended public charging. Pure drop-off loses money at low volume. Core-exchange is capital-heavy. HYBRID drop-off + supervised express was the only model with no risk flags and the best net -- balancing accessibility against the safety burden.
Done: safety substrate, intake triage, profit/risk planner, grounded financial model, this plan. Next to de-risk the numbers: get real local quotes for the unverified items (rent, insurance availability/cost, wages) and a local market sizing, then re-run the model. Then build: R2 recondition workflow, R3 fire-safe facility design, and a battery-market competitive matrix.
This plan mixes VERIFIED market data (adversarially verified, 2-of-3 refutes kills a claim) with clearly-labeled assumptions for items that could not be sourced. The payoff is the optimistic base case; the adversarial section is the realistic test. Do not commit capital until the open items are sourced locally. Full cost basis with per-figure sources: knowledge/research/2026-06-23-battery-reclaim-cost-basis.md.