nx_analyst_case_ac.nx source

1// nx_analyst_case_ac.nx -- ANALYST CASE 001: "why is it so expensive to get an AC when it is 2// simpler than a computer?" (the operator question, answered with a TRACED ledger, not media 3// common-wisdom). Numbers are REAL + corroborated (>=2 independent sources per MEASURED row, 4// gathered 2026-06-10); FETCH+EXTRACT was the delegated step (honest boundary, same as 5// nx_researcher.nx) -- live-fetch of every source via own-TLS into the Library is the NAMED DEBT 6// (rung A1, a fetch-task this case emits). All arithmetic, the verdict, and the report are 7// team-owned + deterministic. Emits knowledge/status/analyst_ac_vs_pc.log. 8// LAWS: struct-free, integer-only (cents/permil/q10), no &&/||. license_tier: ORIGINAL 9import "nx_analyst.nx" 10import "nx_syscalls.nx" 11const AC_MAGIC_575000: i64 = 575000 12const AC_MAGIC_210000: i64 = 210000 13const AC_MAGIC_30000: i64 = 30000 14const AC_MAGIC_105000: i64 = 105000 15const AC_MAGIC_230000: i64 = 230000 16const AC_MAGIC_80000: i64 = 80000 17const AC_MAGIC_2000: i64 = 2000 18const AC_MAGIC_470000: i64 = 470000 19const AC_MAGIC_4700: i64 = 4700 20const AC_MAGIC_98124: i64 = 98124 21const AC_MAGIC_3833: i64 = 3833 22const AC_MAGIC_1024: i64 = 1024 23 24// case thresholds = the gate spec contract (nx_analyst_gate.nx) 25const AC_TOL_PPM: i64 = 5000 26const AC_MIN_TP: i64 = 600 27const AC_MAX_RP: i64 = 150 28 29func ac_wf(fd: i64, s: *u8) -> i64 { var n: i64=0; while s[n]!=(0 as u8){n=n+1} sys_write(fd,s,n); return 0 } 30func ac_wnf(fd: i64, v: i64) -> i64 { let bb: *u8=sys_mmap(28); var m: i64=v; if m<0{m=0-m;sys_write(fd,"-" as *u8,1)} let t: *u8=sys_mmap(28); var k: i64=0; if m==0{t[0]=48 as u8;k=1} while m>0{t[k]=(48+(m%10)) as u8;m=m/10;k=k+1} var i: i64=0; while i<k{bb[i]=t[k-1-i];i=i+1} sys_write(fd,bb,k); return 0 } 31 32// the corroborated ledger: US 2025 average installed 3-ton central AC job, $5,750 [S1,S2]. 33// node 0 ROOT, flat decomposition (non-overlapping: equipment-at-cost + materials + burdened 34// direct labor + contractor gross margin = retail price; billed-labor figures were NOT used 35// because billed rates embed margin = double-count). 36func ac_build(parent: *i64, value: *i64, kind: *i64) -> i64 { 37 parent[0]=0-1; value[0]=AC_MAGIC_575000; kind[0]=AN_DERIVED // installed price [S1,S2] 38 parent[1]=0; value[1]=AC_MAGIC_210000; kind[1]=AN_MEASURED // equipment @ distributor cost [S3,S4] 39 parent[2]=0; value[2]=AC_MAGIC_30000; kind[2]=AN_MEASURED // materials + old-unit disposal [S1,S2] 40 parent[3]=0; value[3]=AC_MAGIC_105000; kind[3]=AN_DERIVED // burdened install labor, ESTIMATE -> fetch-task 41 parent[4]=0; value[4]=AC_MAGIC_230000; kind[4]=AN_MEASURED // contractor gross margin ~40% of job [S5,S6] 42 return 5 43} 44 45func main() -> i64 { 46 let parent: *i64 = sys_mmap(8*8) as *i64 47 let value: *i64 = sys_mmap(8*8) as *i64 48 let kind: *i64 = sys_mmap(8*8) as *i64 49 let n: i64 = ac_build(parent, value, kind) 50 51 let cf: i64 = an_closure_fails(parent, value, n, AC_TOL_PPM) 52 let na: i64 = an_narrative_admitted(kind, value, n) 53 let tc: i64 = an_traced_cents(parent, value, kind, n) 54 let tp: i64 = an_traced_permil(value[0], tc) 55 let rc: i64 = an_residual_cents(value[0], tc) 56 let rp: i64 = an_residual_permil(value[0], tc) 57 let vd: i64 = an_ledger_verdict(parent, value, kind, n, AC_TOL_PPM, AC_MIN_TP, AC_MAX_RP) 58 // paradox lens: AC $5750 over ~150 distinct parts vs desktop PC $800 over ~2000 board-level 59 // components (part counts are A1 ESTIMATES, named as such -- they scale a printed metric, 60 // they do NOT feed the verdict). 61 let px: i64 = an_paradox_q10(AC_MAGIC_575000, 150, AC_MAGIC_80000, AC_MAGIC_2000) 62 63 let fd: i64 = sys_openat_wr("knowledge/status/analyst_ac_vs_pc.log" as *u8, 0x1a4) 64 ac_wf(fd, "# ANALYST CASE 001 -- why does an installed AC cost $5,750 when a more complex computer costs $800?\n" as *u8) 65 ac_wf(fd, "# captured 2026-06-10 by nx_analyst_case_ac (sovereign nx_cc->nxasm_x86 run); fetch+extract DELEGATED (honest boundary), arithmetic+verdict TEAM-OWNED+deterministic.\n\n" as *u8) 66 ac_wf(fd, "## traced cost ledger (US 2025 avg installed 3-ton central AC job)\n" as *u8) 67 ac_wf(fd, " ROOT installed price $5750 [S1,S2]\n" as *u8) 68 ac_wf(fd, " equipment @ distributor cost $2100 MEASURED [S3,S4]\n" as *u8) 69 ac_wf(fd, " materials + old-unit disposal $300 MEASURED [S1,S2]\n" as *u8) 70 ac_wf(fd, " burdened install labor (est ~25 tech-hr) $1050 DERIVED -- fetch-task owed (BLS 49-9021 wage x measured hours)\n" as *u8) 71 ac_wf(fd, " contractor gross margin (~40% installs) $2300 MEASURED [S5,S6]\n" as *u8) 72 ac_wf(fd, " closure-fails=" as *u8); ac_wnf(fd, cf) 73 ac_wf(fd, " narrative-admitted=" as *u8); ac_wnf(fd, na) 74 ac_wf(fd, " traced-cents=" as *u8); ac_wnf(fd, tc) 75 ac_wf(fd, " (" as *u8); ac_wnf(fd, tp); ac_wf(fd, " permil) residual-cents=" as *u8); ac_wnf(fd, rc) 76 ac_wf(fd, " (" as *u8); ac_wnf(fd, rp); ac_wf(fd, " permil)\n" as *u8) 77 ac_wf(fd, " VERDICT=" as *u8); ac_wnf(fd, vd) 78 ac_wf(fd, " (1=EXPLAINED 2=SHENANIGAN 3=UNDERTRACED 4=BROKEN) -- residual NAMED not smoothed; 1 derived row owes corroboration\n\n" as *u8) 79 ac_wf(fd, "## where the money actually goes (vs the media answer)\n" as *u8) 80 ac_wf(fd, " - the MACHINE is 37% of the price ($2100/$5750); 63% is domestic service + margin layers.\n" as *u8) 81 ac_wf(fd, " - margin layers MEASURED: distributor +15-25% [S4], contractor equipment markup +50-100% (industry guides say 3x-6x on parts) [S4,S6], install gross margin 35-45%, ~40% national avg [S5,S6].\n" as *u8) 82 ac_wf(fd, " - the PC contrast: Dell CSG operating margin 6.1% FY2025, HP Personal Systems 4.5-5.5% FY2025 [S7,S8, SEC filings]. The AC service/margin layer runs ~7x the PC margin layer.\n" as *u8) 83 ac_wf(fd, " - paradox lens: AC ~$38/distinct part (150 est) vs PC ~$0.40 (2000 est) -> q10=" as *u8); ac_wnf(fd, px) 84 ac_wf(fd, " (~96x pricier per unit complexity; part counts are A1 estimates)\n" as *u8) 85 ac_wf(fd, " - structural causes the trace SUPPORTS: (a) GATEKEPT DISTRIBUTION -- consumers cannot buy at distributor price, the channel is licensed [S3,S4]; (b) MANDATORY PRO-INSTALL bundles a ~40%-gross-margin local service onto every unit [S5,S6]; (c) Baumol: install labor is local + non-automatable, PC assembly is globalized + automated.\n" as *u8) 86 ac_wf(fd, " - common wisdoms NOT supported by this trace (narrative nodes, 0 admitted): refrigerant-got-expensive, raw-materials-inflation -- the machine itself is only 37% of the job.\n\n" as *u8) 87 ac_wf(fd, "## sources (delegated extract 2026-06-10; live-fetch into the Library = rung A1 debt)\n" as *u8) 88 ac_wf(fd, " S1 hvac.com cost-of-a-new-central-air-conditioner (2025 guide: $5,750 avg 3-ton installed; disposal $200-400)\n" as *u8) 89 ac_wf(fd, " S2 todayshomeowner.com hvac-installation-cost (labor $75-150/hr, $1.5k-3k billed; corroborates S1 range)\n" as *u8) 90 ac_wf(fd, " S3 acdirect.com + hvacdirect.com (direct-to-consumer 3-ton system listings ~ $1.9k-2.6k = the un-gatekept equipment price)\n" as *u8) 91 ac_wf(fd, " S4 acdirect.com blog why-hvac-contractors-double-equipment-price + servicetitan markup chart (distributor +15-25%, contractor 50-100% equip markup, 3x-6x parts)\n" as *u8) 92 ac_wf(fd, " S5 profitabilitypartners.io hvac-profit-margins (install gross margin 35-45%, ~40% national avg, 200+ P&Ls)\n" as *u8) 93 ac_wf(fd, " S6 simprogroup.com hvac-profit-margins (35-45% installs, 50-65% service; corroborates S5)\n" as *u8) 94 ac_wf(fd, " S7 SEC 8-K Dell FY2025 (CSG operating margin 6.1%)\n" as *u8) 95 ac_wf(fd, " S8 SEC 8-K HP FY2025 (Personal Systems operating margin 4.5-5.5%)\n\n" as *u8) 96 ac_wf(fd, "## fetch tasks owed (-> Researcher, rung A1)\n" as *u8) 97 ac_wf(fd, " T1 corroborate burdened install labor: BLS OES 49-9021 median wage x measured job-hours (kills the only DERIVED row)\n" as *u8) 98 ac_wf(fd, " T2 pin part-count complexity units (AC + desktop teardowns) -> paradox lens stops being an estimate\n" as *u8) 99 ac_wf(fd, " T3 live-fetch S1-S8 via own-TLS into the Library w/ CAS provenance (retire the delegated-extract debt)\n" as *u8) 100 sys_close(fd) 101 102 // ---- self-checks (the case is also a gate: hand-computed expectations) ---- 103 let r: *i64 = sys_mmap(8*12) as *i64 104 var t: i64 = 0 105 r[t]=0; if cf == 0 { r[t]=1 } t=t+1 // ledger closes exactly 106 r[t]=0; if na == 0 { r[t]=1 } t=t+1 // zero common-wisdom rows admitted 107 r[t]=0; if tc == AC_MAGIC_470000 { r[t]=1 } t=t+1 // traced $AC_MAGIC_4700 108 r[t]=0; if tp == 817 { r[t]=1 } t=t+1 // 81.7% coverage 109 r[t]=0; if rp == 182 { r[t]=1 } t=t+1 // 18.2% named residual 110 r[t]=0; if vd == AN_SHENANIGAN { r[t]=1 } t=t+1 // residual > 15% -> named, fetch-task owed 111 r[t]=0; if px == AC_MAGIC_98124 { r[t]=1 } t=t+1 // (AC_MAGIC_3833*AC_MAGIC_1024)/40 hand-computed 112 r[t]=0; if an_is_reproducible(parent,value,kind,n,AC_TOL_PPM,AC_MIN_TP,AC_MAX_RP) == 1 { r[t]=1 } t=t+1 113 var pass: i64 = 0 114 var i: i64 = 0 115 while i < t { pass = pass + r[i]; i = i + 1 } 116 ac_wf(1, "=== ANALYST CASE 001 (AC vs PC) ===\n verdict=" as *u8); ac_wnf(1, vd) 117 ac_wf(1, " traced-permil=" as *u8); ac_wnf(1, tp) 118 ac_wf(1, " residual-permil=" as *u8); ac_wnf(1, rp) 119 ac_wf(1, " paradox-q10=" as *u8); ac_wnf(1, px) 120 ac_wf(1, "\n report -> knowledge/status/analyst_ac_vs_pc.log\n checks " as *u8) 121 ac_wnf(1, pass); ac_wf(1, "/" as *u8); ac_wnf(1, t); ac_wf(1, "\n" as *u8) 122 if pass == t { sys_exit(0); return 0 } 123 sys_exit(1); return 1 124}